90.4% of Loughborough Homeowners are over 35 - The effect of their Brexit vote on the Loughborough Property Market
Well it’s been
several weeks since the Referendum vote and we have had a chance to
reflect on the momentous decision that the British public took. I woke up early
in the morning, with the declaration by the BBC saying we were leaving the EU.
I don’t think any of us were expecting that!
In this article I would like to take my thoughts on from
that initial news and now start to see the clearer picture as the dust settles
on the UK, but more importantly, the Loughborough Property Market.
In case you weren’t aware, the residents of the Charnwood
Borough Council area went against the National mood and voted as follows ..
Charnwood Borough Council Leave Votes 50,672 (53.8% of the vote)
Charnwood Borough Council Turnout 70.4%
I have been reading there is some evidence to
indicate younger voters were vastly more likely to vote Remain than their
parents and grandparents and, whilst the polling industry's techniques may have
been widely criticised, following them getting both the 2010 General Election
and the recent Brexit vote wrong, anecdotally, many surveys seem to suggest
there was a relationship between age and likelihood to support leaving the EU.
Interestingly, the average age of a Loughborough resident is
39.3 years old, which is the same as the national average of 39.3, which might
go someway to back up the way Loughborough voted? What I do know is that
putting aside whether you were a remain or leave voter, the vote to leave has,
and will, create uncertainty and the last thing the British property market
needs is uncertainty (because as with previous episodes of uncertainty in the
UK economy – UK house prices have tended to go down).
Interestingly, when we look at the Homeownership rates in
the Charnwood Borough Council area, of
the 48,499 properties that are owned in the Charnwood Borough Council area
(Owned being owned outright, owned with a mortgage or shared ownership), the
age range paints a noteworthy picture.
Age 35 to 49 homeowners 13,980 or 28.8% (Nationally 29.2%)
Age 50 to 64 homeowners 15,324 or 31.6% (Nationally 30.7%)
Aged 65+ homeowners 14,566 or 30.0% (Nationally 30.5%)
So, looking at these figures, and the high proportion of
older homeowners, you might think all the Charnwood Borough Council area
homeowners would vote Remain to keep house prices stable and younger people would
vote out so house prices come down- so they could afford to buy?
But there's a risk in oversimplifying
this. The sample of the polling firms are in the thousands whilst the country
voted in its millions. Other demographic influences have been at play in the
way people voted, as early evidence is starting to suggest that class, level of
education, the levels of immigration and ethnic diversity had an influence on
the way the various parts of the UK voted.
So what I suggest is this – Don’t assume
everyone over the age of 50 voted ‘Leave’ and don’t assume most 20
somethings backed ‘Remain’; because many didn't!
If you would like to discuss the Loughborough property market or chat about any potential investment please feel free to call me on 01509 260777 or email me james.loughborough@belvoir.co.uk
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