Loughborough property values
are currently unexpectedly 7.3% higher than at the end of 2017, notwithstanding
the uncertainty and threats over the potential impact of Brexit in 2019. This
has exceeded all the predictions, aka guesses, of all the City of London
economists in an astonishing sign of strength for the local Loughborough and
wider national economy.
Nevertheless, the statistics
from the Land Registry come after a lethargic year for the number of
properties in Loughborough compared to the actual prices achieved for those
properties. All this against a framework
of amplified political ambiguity and ensuing years of rising Loughborough
property values that have reduced the affordability of homes in the locality.
The average value of a Loughborough property today
currently stands at £254,300.
Looking in finer detail, it
isn’t a surprise that the figure of 1861 property sales in Loughborough over the last 12 months
is lower than the long-term average over the last 20 years of 2109 property
sales per year in Loughborough, as the long-term trend of people moving less has
meant a decline in the number of property transactions.
I believe locally, Loughborough
property value growth will be more reserved in 2019 after two decades of weaker
wage rises. One of main drivers in the demand, and thus the price people are
prepared to pay for a home, is the growth of peoples wage packets. Interestingly,
wage inflation over the last six months has risen from 2.4% in the late summer
to its current level of 3.3%, which is higher than the average modest 2.1% since the
Millennium. One of the reasons why wages are
growing in the short term is the unemployment rate in the country currently only
stands at 4.1%, continuing to stay close to its lowest level since the 1970’s.
However, even though Loughborough
salaries and wages are rising comparatively higher than they were last year,
looking over the long term, Loughborough property values are 141% higher than
they were in January 2002, yet average salaries are only 76.1% higher over the
same time frame. This means that over the last few years, with average property
values so high comparative to salary or wages, many Loughborough potential buyers
have been priced out of being able to purchase their first home.
At first glance, these stats
are actually rather positive during this reported time of political uncertainty
and the height of Brexit commotion because I genuinely believe that to be
the case. The press have always looked for the bad news (well they do say it is
that that sells newspapers), and whilst I am not entering into the pros and
cons of Brexit itself, the numbers do stack up quite well since the Brexit vote
took place nearly 3 years ago.
Moving forward, when taken
with the recent reduction in number of property transactions over the short to medium term (i.e. the number of Loughborough properties sold), it should be noted that a
lot of this buoyant house price increase has a lot more to do with a
shortage of properties on the market rather than an uplift in the Loughborough
housing market generally.
And we can’t forget that Loughborough
isn’t in its own little bubble, as there are noteworthy differences across the UK
in property value inflation. House prices in London and the South East have hardly
risen or even fallen in some places, whilst in the Midlands, North and other
parts of the country they have generally increased.
Looking forward, I would say
to the homeowners and buy to let landlords of the locality that I expect Loughborough
house price growth to remain stable between 1.4% and 2.2% by the end of this
year (although they could dip slightly during the summer) as long as
nothing unexpected happens in the world economically or politically of course.
If you would like to discuss the Loughborough property market or chat about any potential investment please feel free to call us on 01509 260777 or email me.
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